India has suspended a key water-sharing treaty, severed major diplomatic ties with Pakistan, and ordered the expulsion of Pakistani nationals following a deadly militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that claimed 26 lives. The dramatic escalation has reignited concerns of military confrontation between the nuclear-armed neighbours.
The attack, which occurred earlier this week in a popular tourist area of Kashmir, involved gunmen opening fire on civilians—a marked departure from previous attacks that typically targeted Indian security forces. Among the attackers, Indian police identified two as Pakistani nationals. Pakistan has denied any involvement, rejecting accusations of “cross-border terrorism.”
In a televised address on Thursday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to pursue the perpetrators “to the ends of the Earth,” framing the attack as a direct assault on India’s sovereignty and national security.
Diplomatic Break
New Delhi responded swiftly and decisively. By Wednesday night, it had announced the closure of the Attari-Wagah border crossing—the primary land route between the two countries—and halted the Indus Waters Treaty, a long-standing but largely symbolic agreement governing the flow of shared rivers.
Visa services for Pakistani nationals were suspended “with immediate effect,” and all Pakistani citizens in India, excluding diplomatic staff, were ordered to leave the country within a week.
These measures represent the most severe diplomatic rupture between the neighbours since the Pulwama suicide bombing in 2019, which resulted in retaliatory airstrikes by India on Pakistani territory.
“A Long Way Back to the Dark Days”
International analysts say the diplomatic fallout may only be the beginning. “This attack is going to take relations a long way back to the dark days,” said Praveen Donthi of the International Crisis Group. “Given the Modi government’s security posture, we may see military action within weeks.”
Michael Kugelman, a senior analyst with the Wilson Center in Washington, said the targeting of civilians signals a potential shift in strategy by insurgent groups and could provoke a calibrated Indian response.
“I suspect New Delhi will review a range of possible retaliatory options before striking,” Kugelman noted, adding that the scale and symbolism of the attack—striking at the heart of Kashmir’s tourism economy—could compel a more forceful Indian stance.
Tourism and the “Normalcy” Narrative
Kashmir, long at the centre of India-Pakistan tensions, has been undergoing a security crackdown since the Modi administration revoked the region’s partial autonomy in 2019. Indian officials have pointed to a surge in domestic tourism—over 3.5 million visitors in 2024—as evidence that peace is returning to the troubled region.
However, the recent attack has cast a shadow over that narrative.
“A major attack in a tourist area constitutes a break from the past,” said Ajai Sahni, head of the New Delhi-based Institute for Conflict Management. “There had been a sort of unwritten understanding not to target the tourism sector, which so many Kashmiris depend on.”
Analysts suggest that by attacking civilians and tourists, militants may be aiming to undermine the Indian government’s claims of stability in the region.
Pakistan Responds
Pakistan held a rare National Security Committee meeting in Islamabad following India’s actions, calling the steps “aggressive and provocative.” Officials warned that Pakistan will not be “intimidated,” though the country has so far refrained from responding in kind.
The escalation has alarmed regional observers and international actors alike, with fears mounting over possible military retaliation.
“Ill-Advised” to Escalate Militarily
While the Modi administration has not officially confirmed any military plans, security experts say covert options remain on the table. Ajai Sahni warned against hasty military reprisals, noting that past strikes yielded little long-term strategic gain.
“There is a wide range of covert tools available that can be far more effective than open warfare,” he said.
For now, both nations remain on edge, with the world watching closely as tensions build. Any miscalculation could reignite a broader conflict in a region already fraught with decades of hostility.
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