Kampala, Uganda — As Uganda’s election campaign draws to a close, opposition leader Bobi Wine has become a stark symbol of the country’s tense political climate, trading tailored suits and campaign rallies for a bulletproof vest and helmet as he crisscrosses the country under heavy security.
Bobi Wine — born Robert Kyagulanyi — is contesting the presidency for a second time, seeking to unseat long-serving President Yoweri Museveni, who has ruled Uganda for nearly four decades and is now pursuing a seventh term. While the early days of the campaign in October were marked by cautious optimism, analysts say the environment has since hardened into one defined by intimidation, calculated repression and an increasingly militarised public space.
Since his clearance to run in September, Bobi Wine’s campaign convoy has repeatedly faced tear gas, roadblocks and the arrest of supporters. Campaign events have frequently been disrupted, forcing crowds to scatter as security forces seal off roads. Although the violence has not reached the deadly scale seen during the disputed 2021 election — when more than 50 people were killed during protests — opposition figures insist the current crackdown is no less severe.
“This time the violence is more controlled and strategic,” said Michael Mutyaba, a Ugandan political analyst and doctoral researcher at SOAS University of London. “In 2021, security agencies appeared to be in panic mode. Now the repression looks calculated and expanded.”
Bobi Wine, 43, finished runner-up in the last presidential race, which he rejected amid allegations of fraud. President Museveni, 81, dismissed those claims and retained power. More than 21.6 million registered voters are expected to cast ballots in Thursday’s election, which also includes parliamentary contests.
Tensions have been fuelled by remarks from Museveni’s son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba — Uganda’s army chief — who publicly threatened Bobi Wine in the months leading up to the campaign, including comments about beheading him. Kainerugaba also claimed responsibility for the abduction and torture of Bobi Wine’s bodyguard, Edward Ssebuufu, who remains in detention.
In December, Bobi Wine was attacked during a campaign stop in Gulu by security personnel and armed plainclothes individuals. He and several aides were beaten, campaign equipment vandalised, and one person later died from injuries sustained in the incident. In another case in Mbarara, police arrested 43 of his supporters over a dispute about campaign routes; they remain in detention.
According to David Lewis Rubonyoya, secretary-general of the National Unity Platform (NUP), Bobi Wine’s party, the campaign deteriorated sharply after October. “The first month was not so violent, but after that it became chaotic,” he said.
The opposition also accuses the state of weakening Bobi Wine’s parliamentary support. Numerous NUP-aligned candidates have withdrawn from races, denounced Bobi Wine and joined the ruling National Resistance Movement. While the government says the defections were voluntary, Bobi Wine claims candidates were bribed.
Yusuf Serunkuma, a political analyst at Makerere University, described the trend as part of Uganda’s entrenched “transactional politics”, noting that vote-buying and political inducements have long shaped electoral outcomes.
The Electoral Commission has also disqualified several opposition-backed candidates, citing nomination irregularities. Constitutional lawyer Jude Byamukama called the cancellations “ridiculous”, arguing they were aimed at creating unopposed ruling-party candidates and limiting legal appeals.
Alongside coercive measures, President Museveni has launched what critics call a softer strategy, distributing millions of dollars in cash to informal sector groups — including boda boda riders, taxi operators and street vendors — particularly in central Uganda, Bobi Wine’s stronghold. Analysts describe the move as organised vote-buying, though the government denies wrongdoing.
As polling day approaches, Bobi Wine has warned of plans to arrest him and abduct key organisers tasked with monitoring polling stations. He has urged supporters to take safety precautions, including disabling phone location services and avoiding predictable routes.
A potential flashpoint remains whether voters should stay near polling stations after voting to “protect the vote”, as Bobi Wine has advised. While Ugandan law allows voters to remain at least 20 metres from polling stations, security agencies and the Electoral Commission have urged people to leave immediately after casting ballots.
Despite the charged political atmosphere, many Ugandans say they want peace above all else.
“Violence helps no one,” said Wanyama Isaac, a construction worker in Kampala and a Bobi Wine supporter. “Both sides must remain calm.”
Mashabe Alex, a boda boda rider who supports President Museveni, agreed. “Violence destroys businesses and lives, as we saw in 2021,” he said, urging restraint from all political camps as the country heads to the polls.
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