Five times down, but not out—Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s track record with elections has been unfavorable, but in about a week, he looks to turn his fortunes around. Raila seeks to become the next chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC) and will require the support of two-thirds of the 55 AU member states, translating to 33 votes.
If successful, he will succeed Chad’s Moussa Faki and attain the esteemed status of driving change in Africa. This year’s AUC elections in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia will feature three top contenders vying for the seat; Raila, Djibouti’s Mohamoud Youssouf and Richard Randriamandrato of Madagascar.
For months, Kenya’s candidate has been on a charm offensive across the continent as he sought to secure votes from African heads of state. Raila’s foe turned ally, President William Ruto has been his chief campaigner as he rallied other leaders to deliver victory for the former premier.
An analysis of their past diplomatic tours reveals that 19 African heads of state have pledged their support for Raila. These include Kenya, Togo, Gambia, Senegal, Guinea Bissau, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Equatorial Guinea, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Malawi.
Other countries include Tanzania, Uganda, Seychelles, Mauritius, Rwanda, Burundi, Algeria, South Sudan and Eritrea.
The figure, however, differs from Raila’s campaign team chair Elkanah Odembo who recently revealed that Kenya had secured the support of at least 28 nations.
“We still have work to do, especially given that we are determined to get the two-thirds in the first round,” Odembo told the Standard.
Under the AU rules, the voting is done by secret ballot and shall continue until one of the candidates obtains the two-thirds majority vote. The previous AUC elections saw Moussa Faki beat Kenya’s then-candidate Amina Mohamed after seven rounds of voting.
Insiders said that East African states such as Uganda, Burundi, Djibouti and Tanzania failed to vote for Kenya during the stages.
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This lays the groundwork for geopolitical intrigues which are in the offing. Critics have argued that Raila’s chances could be in jeopardy amid how President Ruto handles the DRC crisis that has seen Congolese security forces battle militant groups led by M23.
Ruto, who chairs the East African Community, will attempt to address the conflict in the nation to restore peace.
The dynamics, however, are complex owing to multiple factors that affect political, economic and historical dimensions in DRC. Thus, Ruto’s foreign policy approach could improve or hurt Raila’s candidature.
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